Cal hopes lower expectations lead to more success

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/12/2010 -

BERKELEY, Calif. (AP) -The talk of the Heisman Trophy, a Rose Bowl and BCS bids that was so prevalent around California last year feels as far away as the Golden Bears' last outright Pac-10 title more than a half-century ago.

After yet another promising season came to a disappointing finish, and with star running back Jahvid Best off to the NFL, expectations are much lower for Cal in 2010.

A team that made it to No. 6 in the country last September before finishing outside the Top 25 for the third straight season enters this year picked seventh in the Pac-10.

``Each year brings new challenges and you approach each year differently,'' coach Jeff Tedford said. ``Last year with really high expectations, a lot of talk was, 'We welcome them. We'll do this or that.' That's changed. We're not going into it with that mindset anymore because I do not want to get into the situation where if we stub our toe the whole world caved in. It felt like it. That's not what we need. That's not how we need to live.''

That's exactly what happened last year. The lofty preseason projections were followed by a 3-0 start that led many around Cal to believe the team would finally make it back to the Rose Bowl for the first time since after the 1958 season.

But in less time than it takes a rose to wilt, the Bears lost back to back games to Oregon and Southern California by a combined 72-6. Tedford said that even when the team was 8-3, it felt like 3-8 because of the preseason hype. After a 42-10 defeat at Washington and a Poinsettia Bowl loss to Utah, Cal finished 8-5.

``When we are the top dog it just seems like we fall flat on our face,'' senior linebacker Mike Mohamed said. ``That's something that we've talked about. When we do get to the top, what do we have to do to stay up there. We're capable of getting up there, but we have to be capable of staying up there.''

Based on the preseason prognostications, most experts doubt whether Cal can even get close to the top this season.

That's just the kind of talk the Bears want to hear.

``They tell us not to read the papers and not to watch TV and all that stuff,'' tailback Shane Vereen said. ``But it's really hard not to. It's hard not to listen to what is being said. So we know. We know that we're not slotted to win a lot of games. We're picked to finish seventh. We know all that. It just adds fuel to the fire.''

Vereen has the task of replacing Best, who finished his career at Cal with 2,668 yards rushing, 62 catches for 533 yards and 35 total touchdowns.

Vereen got a head start on that last year when Best missed the final four games of the season after a frightening fall knocked him out and sent him to the hospital with a concussion and sore back.

Vereen rushed for 566 yards and six touchdowns in the final four games for Cal. Vereen's best performance came in the Big Game at Stanford, when he carried 42 times for 193 yards and three scores in a 34-28 victory. Vereen finished his sophomore season with 852 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns.

``It was important for the team and for myself to show that I can do it and that I actually did it,'' Vereen said. ``The running game for our offense is make or break for us because it helps so many other parts of the offense.''

A big year for Vereen will be especially helpful for quarterback Kevin Riley, who bore the brunt of the criticism for the offense's struggles a year ago. Riley shone at times but was woefully inconsistent. He completed only 54.7 percent of his passes and struggled when being pressured by the defense.

Tedford went into camp saying Riley was his starter unless he was beaten out in August by Beau Sweeney or Brock Mansion. Tedford pointed out that Riley was the active leader in the Pac-10 in wins, touchdown passes and starts, adding that he hopes that experience pays off on the field.

``This is his team,'' Tedford said. ``It's his senior year. Kevin's not stupid. He sees what's been out there. Even though he feels like he has a lot to prove, I don't want him thinking he has a lot to prove. I want him playing his game and doing his best and have a little bit of fun with it and not put so much stress on himself.''

Riley's teammates saw a big difference in the quarterback at spring practice and during informal summer workouts. The key is how that translates to the field once the season starts.

``This is the hardest I've ever seen him work,'' Vereen said. ``This is the most focused I've seen him. He's established himself as a leader on this team and the leader of this offense.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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